The stats prove promotion through the play-offs is no longer a disadvantage
Last season, Deloitte dubbed it the £170million game. As Reading and Huddersfield prepare to face each other at Wembley on Monday in the 2016/17 Championship Play-off final, The Independent claim the ante has been upped to a staggering £290million.
Indeed, there is no question promotion to the Premier League, via the automatic spots or the Play-offs, is an exceptionally lucrative enterprise these days. The problem throughout Premier League history for clubs using the latter avenue, however, is that gains were only made in the short term. Perhaps unsurprisingly, of the three sides promoted each season, the Play-off winners average the shortest stay in the Premier League, 2.71 seasons compared to 3.67 for the runners-up and 3.95 for the second-tier champions.
During the eight seasons between 2003 and 2011, however, that trend veered to the extreme; only two playoff winners survived their first season in the top flight, only one survived their second season and three returned to the Championship after finishing rock bottom – not least including the infamous Derby County side that recorded the lowest ever points haul in Premier League history, just eleven, in 2007/08.
In that time, the Play-off final wasn’t so much a shot at the big-time as much as it was a chance to make up the numbers. Of course, the clubs involved certainly couldn’t turn up their noses at the increased revenue passed their way, and many have since returned to the Premier League through automatic promotion – something that may not have been possible without that financial windfall of prize money, television deals and parachute payments.
Yet, the Play-off winners were still very much the equivalent of journeymen boxers; paid to turn up, take a beating and fade back into obscurity without making a fuss or daring to upset the odds. It may have helped stabilise the long-term futures of certain clubs, but a year of being beaten to a pulp by the Premier League’s big boys was far from an enjoyable experience for the fans – something that must be on the minds of Huddersfield and Reading supporters looking beyond Monday’s Wembley showdown.
In terms of top-flight credentials, doubts inevitably linger over both sides. Huddersfield performed far beyond expectations this season to finish in fifth – a position that has lead to relegation after winning the Play-off for two of its last four proprietors.
Reading, meanwhile, although finishing in third, slowed down towards the end of the regular season and weren’t hugely convincing in the two semi-final legs against Fulham. Rather intriguingly, Reading could go up with the worst goals conceded tally in promotion history, whilst Huddersfield could make it to the Premier League with the worst ever goal difference.
Fortunately for Reading and Huddersfield fans, however, the dynamics have changed over the last six years. From the six Play-off winners, only one has finished bottom – QPR – three have survived and all three are still in the Premier League, including Swansea City who are now preparing for their seventh campaign in the lead division despite having no prior Premier League experience.
Likewise, those three all breached the 45-point mark in their first Premier League season, all finishing either tenth or eleventh. Even more good news for Reading and Huddersfield; they all ended the regular Championship season in either third or fifth place.
But the pattern goes much deeper than simply some arguably coincidental league standings. Over the last six seasons, Play-off winners have actually outperformed their automatic promotion counterparts on the most-part, excepting the relegation ratio of 50%. On average, Play-off winners have finished with more points and in a higher league position despite spending less money. Furthermore and perhaps most crucially for the long-term ambitions of the Royals and the Terriers, they tend to stay longer in the top flight by an average of one season.
It dispels long-standing myths of Play-off clubs being at an inevitable disadvantage, because they move up to the top flight as theoretically weaker sides, have a shorter summer to prepare for the coming season and to bring in new signings, and accordingly struggle to attract a quality of player that may deem the automatically promoted clubs as less risky.
And looking at the three Play-off winners to survive compared to those who didn’t, there is a trend that particularly stands out – well-defined styles of play. Perhaps that’s a little flattering of a Crystal Palace side that was created by Dougie Freedman and looked rudderless in the top flight under Ian Holloway until Tony Pulis brought in a true identity.
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But West Ham’s 2011/12 winners were already tailored to Sam Allardyce’s long-established philosophy when they returned to the Premier League, and Swansea City became one of the most ideologically-geared sides in the top flight, famed for their possession-based brand of football, after Brendan Rodgers took them up the year prior.
That can be seen in Reading and Huddersfield as well. Jaap Stam has implemented a typically Dutch possession game at the Madjeski Stadium, whilst David Wagner’s approach is straight out of the Borussia Dortmund school of thought – attacking verve combined with blood-and-thunder high pressing off the ball. In their own ways, both sides are incredibly distinctive in style.
Whereas the Play-off winners who went straight back down over the last six years all lacked that acute identity, on the most-part spending their way to the Premier League by hoping solid defensive organisation would make their expensively-acquired quality tell in the second tier, Reading and Huddersfield feel like real teams forged on genuine ideals. That’s not only what has taken them to this season’s Wembley showdown, but also what will be integral to achieving survival in the top flight.